Polish on-trade in Q3: Soft drinks are on decline, whiskey is on the rise

Fresh data from Market Meter point to some changes on the Polish on-trade market. In this article, we’ll look in detail at the numeric distribution - specifically which brands gained the most during the past quarter. All the data is sourced directly from Market Meter.

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The state of the Polish on-trade market

First let’s look at the Q/Q change of the overall outlet count for various categories to see if the market is in decline or growing. This number represents the total number of outlets where any brand or product from a certain category is present.

The beer category is more or less stable. As of Q3, there were 32 600 places in Poland serving beer. We see a slight downtrend in the carbonated soft drinks category. This part of the market lost 700 outlets and there are currently 44 800 places with carbonated soft drinks on their menus.

As for spirits category, here are the numbers for each sub-category:

• Gin: Lost 300 outlets (10 800 total now)
• Liqueurs: Gained 200 outlets (20 600 total now)
• Mixed drinks: Gained 600 outlets (28 500 total now)
• Rum: Gained 200 outlets (12 800 total now)
• Tequila: Lost 100 outlets (6 500 total now)
• Vodka: Gained 300 outlets (23 100 total now)
• Whiskey: Gained 500 outlets (20 200 total now)

The spirits category is currently doing quite well in Poland with especially whiskey and mixed drinks seeing interesting gains.

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Top 3 beer brands in Poland in Q3

The winners of the Q3 beer race are Lech from Kompania Piwowarska with 1,9% gain, Łomża from Van Pur with 1,2% gain and Paulaner with 0,7% gain. 

Lech is already the market leader with 39,2% total numeric distribution (second place goes to Żywiec with 36,6%). whereas Łomża and Paulaner are slowly catching up with 8,3% and 8,1% numeric distribution respectively.

Overall, the changes in distribution in the beer category have not been especially noteworthy with most of the brands either gaining or losing tenths of percents. But as seen in the first chapter, the category is in a slight decline.

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The best of Polish carbonated soft drinks

The 3rd quarter belonged to the Coca-Cola company, one of the few that actually saw any gains at all. Sprite rose by 1,1% and the original Coca-Cola beverage by 0,7%. The third place goes to On Lemon with 0,1% gain. 

Interestingly, Coke’s biggest competitor PepsiCo lost almost 2% this quarter and only 4 carbonated soft drinks producers ended up in positive territory by a slight margin (apart from Coca-Cola and On Lemon we have Fritz Kola with 0,05% and Kofola with 0,01%). Again, this reflects the overall market decline mentioned in the first chapter.

Since Coca-Cola is already the market leader by a wide margin (60% vs PepsiCo’s 43%) and since the results were similar last quarter we see the continuation of market consolidation. Last Q the Coca-Cola brand as a whole was ahead of Pepsi by 14%, this time it’s 17% but both brands are ahead of their competitors by a wide margin (the third is Orangina Schweppes with 14%).

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The autumn spirit in spirits category

Here’s the list of Q3 winners in every spirits category:

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Some interesting details: 

• In liquers, CEDC won a second time in a row. Last Q winner Jägermeister also gained in this Q (0,6%). 
• Last Q winner in rum category El Jimador by Brown Forman (1.17% gain in Q2) lost 3.5% this Q.
• If you open the Free Market Report, you might see some big changes not included here. Those are caused by adding new products or brands this quarter rather than market events. Also, the Free Market Report is calculated in a different way (more about that at the end of this article) so the numbers differ from the ones used in this report that are sourced directly from Market Meter.

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The Masters of Hot Zones

In the Polish Market Meter you can access the information about brands’ presence in Hot Zones - special on-trade areas with increased consumer traffic & spending. Here are top brands by numeric distribution in Hot Zones in Q3: 

• Beer: Lech (35.4%)
• Soft drinks: Coca-Cola (52.1%)
• Gin: Bombay Sapphire (44.3%)
• Liquers: Martini (50%)
• Mixed drinks: Aperol Spritz (43.61%) trailed by tenths of percent by Cuba Libre (43.32%) and Mojito (43.35%). 
• Rum: Bacardi (59.2%)
• Tequila: Tequila Olmeca (62.9%)
• Vodka: Żubrówka (56.9%)
• Whiskey: Jack Daniels (75.3%)

You can see that overall market leaders like Lech, Coca-Cola and others are doing well in Hot Zones as well. Jack Daniels’ dominance in the whiskey category is really striking. 

Hot Zones are a great indicator of your brand’s current and future performance. Being present in a Hot Zone guarantees better results in branding and marketing as the products are seen by many more consumers than in “regular” on-trade areas. Strong Hot Zones presence might give your brands and products the momentum they need to shine on the market and get stuck in consumers’ heads. 

It pays to regularly check on your competitors’ performance in Hot Zones too. If you see their distribution rising much faster than yours, it might signal troubles for you in the long run. Hot Zones are overall a very useful pivot for your commercial strategy.

DATA IN DETAIL: Free Market Report

If you’re interested in deeper detail, look up our Free Market Report with numeric distribution data for the entire market updated every quarter.

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Data source: Market Meter vs Free Market Report

This is a short summary of the Q3 changes we see in Market Meter. The Free Market Report you can find on our website has slightly different numbers as they are aggregated and counted against a different base. 

The full version of Market Meter contains numeric distribution, prices and more indicators on the level of distributor, brand and product with a detailed view for specific regions and outlet categories. If you’d like to talk about options for your company, contact us.

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SharpGrid is a data & tech company reinventing market research in the on-trade channel. The on-trade channel consists of POSs (points of sale) like restaurants or bars where food & beverage is bought and consumed, and is often also called HoReCa, on-premise, food service, out-of-home, gastro or immediate consumption (IC) channel, hospitality or on-licence.