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January 11, 2022



How to predict with 90% accuracy where a new on-trade outlet will pop up

Martin Müller

Content Lead

This article is also available in other languages

Most brands try in some way to gain an extra edge in new / recently opened on-trade outlets or points of sale. Why? New outlets are where much of the channel innovations take place, from new consumer propositions to new formats or locations. Importantly, new outlets also cater disproportionately to younger consumers.

Would you like to be able to predict where new on-trade outlets will appear so you can get to them before your competitors? To get your foot in the door and get business talks rolling sooner than anyone else? If so, we might have the answer for you.

At SharpGrid, we don't have a crystal ball, but we're almost there. After analyzing data from our BI tool Outlet Census about recently closed and recently open outlets, we have arrived at three important insights:

  • On-trade locations remain on-trade in 90% of cases after the original outlet closed permanently. The chances are (or more accurately 90%) that the place will continue to host an on-trade outlet, typically with a new consumer proposition (e.g. a former cafe location will become a vegan bistro under a new operator). The implication is that monitoring recently closed locations would allow FMCGs to engage with 90% of new outlets before they even start to operate, opening up a whole new world of possibilities on how to grow your business and acquire more customers
  • Secondly, after 6 months, a whopping 65% of locations reopen again. So if your customer recently closed down, there's a high chance a new potential customer will appear at the same place. And if you're ready, you can take advantage of it
  • Thirdly, using our Hot Zone approach, it is possible to identify new outlets that are likely to generate above-average consumer engagement and category turnover, (potentially) warranting a higher market investment by the brand

FREE ON-TRADE DATA: Discover the on-trade market position of your brands and your competitors completely free of charge

Our numbers are based on Outlet Census data and dedicated market research of closed and newly opened outlets that we conducted throughout 2021, as well as Market Meter Hot Zone monitoring.

READ MORE: 2 major hidden costs of the on-trade channel you should know about. And how to stop them from eating away at your profits

The importance of knowing things in advance

By accessing this kind of information, you would be able to initiate negotiations before the outlet is actually up and running, thus increasing your chances of building a business relationship early with the owner. Furthermore, it will allow you to make a more informed decision about the optimal level of market investment, potentially preempting a more expensive opening bidding later.

All this can give you an invaluable head start and business edge in building a market presence in new outlets, creating opportunities for your sales teams, your marketers and ultimately your brands. SharpGrid is harnessing the power of digital revolution that is transforming the on-trade channel and you can reap the benefits.

If you want to know more, contact us and let us know how can we help you get your own personal crystal ball.

SharpGrid is a data & tech company reinventing market research in the on-trade channel. The on-trade channel consists of POSs (point of sale) where food & beverage is bought and consumed, and is often also called HoReCa, on-premise, food service, out-of-home, gastro or immediate consumption (IC) channel, hospitality, on-licence.


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